| Paper title: |
THE PREDICTION OF BANKRUPTCY USING BACKPROPAGATION ALGORITHM FOR "IO" MODEL ANALYSIS |
| Published in: | Issue 1, (Vol. 1) / 2007 |
| Author(s): | Dragota Ciprian |
| Abstract. | The basic question which every bank it puts when a client or a future client whishes to take a bank loan is: "The future debtor it's capable to refund the loan at maturity? (Installments plus the interest)". To answer at this question the bank makes an assessment in which assets and liabilities are analyze. There is also assessed the credit rating, the cash flow, the securities and, very important, bankrupt risk analysis. For the last one, to calculate bankrupt risk analysis, banks use some models (knows as "Z" score). Few of them are financials methods (like Altman, Canon & Holder, Yves Colonques etc). Nevertheless, these models are been develop for a specific situation and for a western economy which is functional and very articulated. For our economy, we propose a new model that is been build with the specific economic dates and inputs, the model we called "IO" model. Without pretending to be able to penetrate over the complexity of the phenomenon, this study is trying to do a practical and experimental analysis of bankruptcy using back propagation algorithm applied to the "IO" model. |
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